S&P 5007,650.50+0.17%Nasdaq26,522.54+0.39%Dow51,682.64-0.18%Nikkei 22565,018.95+1.38%Hang Seng24,750.78+0.60%EuroStoxx 506,236.20-1.37%Dollar (DXY)100.22+0.00%EUR/USD1.15+0.18%USD/JPY156.85+0.46%GBP/USD1.34+0.26%USD/CNY6.70-0.15%US 10Y yield5.00+1.03%US 5Y yield4.86+1.15%Gold4,424.90+0.57%Silver66.56+1.66%Copper6.62+0.43%Platinum1,803.50+0.68%Palladium1,306.20+1.24%WTI100.30-1.58%Brent103.87-0.91%Henry Hub2.91+0.38%Gasoline3.53+0.58%Heating oil5.06-1.10%Wheat714.25-1.75%Corn527.50-0.57%Soybeans1,303.50-1.23%Coffee294.55+1.38%Sugar17.36-0.34%Cocoa5,327.00-7.71%Cotton77.38-1.31%Lithium ETF70.50-0.56%Uranium ETF41.65-2.41%Rare Earths ETF69.06-0.06%Copper Miners ETF87.28+0.77%Bitcoin81,244.98+0.42%Ethereum2,637.29+0.99%Solana111.48-0.99%S&P 5007,650.50+0.17%Nasdaq26,522.54+0.39%Dow51,682.64-0.18%Nikkei 22565,018.95+1.38%Hang Seng24,750.78+0.60%EuroStoxx 506,236.20-1.37%Dollar (DXY)100.22+0.00%EUR/USD1.15+0.18%USD/JPY156.85+0.46%GBP/USD1.34+0.26%USD/CNY6.70-0.15%US 10Y yield5.00+1.03%US 5Y yield4.86+1.15%Gold4,424.90+0.57%Silver66.56+1.66%Copper6.62+0.43%Platinum1,803.50+0.68%Palladium1,306.20+1.24%WTI100.30-1.58%Brent103.87-0.91%Henry Hub2.91+0.38%Gasoline3.53+0.58%Heating oil5.06-1.10%Wheat714.25-1.75%Corn527.50-0.57%Soybeans1,303.50-1.23%Coffee294.55+1.38%Sugar17.36-0.34%Cocoa5,327.00-7.71%Cotton77.38-1.31%Lithium ETF70.50-0.56%Uranium ETF41.65-2.41%Rare Earths ETF69.06-0.06%Copper Miners ETF87.28+0.77%Bitcoin81,244.98+0.42%Ethereum2,637.29+0.99%Solana111.48-0.99%

Rates Decomposition Weekly

Nominal into real and breakeven, the curve state, the term-premium proxy, and what followed that curve state before, with counts.

data as of 2026-09-11 · published 2026-09-15 · next update next Tuesday

TL;DR — the read in bullets

The 10y sits at 4.83%: 2.46% real (98th percentile since 2003) plus 2.40% breakeven (81th percentile); the identity gap is 0.00pp.

teaser chart

3 further findings, 2 charts and the method notes are in the full report.

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MacroBessent Research is market commentary and data analysis. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.

MacroBessent is a research publication and is not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.