MacroBessent

2026-09-19 13:27 UTCAccount
S&P 5007,650.50+0.17%Nasdaq26,522.54+0.39%Dow51,682.64-0.18%Nikkei 22565,018.95+1.38%Hang Seng24,750.78+0.60%EuroStoxx 506,236.20-1.37%Dollar (DXY)100.22+0.00%EUR/USD1.15+0.18%USD/JPY156.85+0.46%GBP/USD1.34+0.26%USD/CNY6.70-0.15%US 10Y yield5.00+1.03%US 5Y yield4.86+1.15%Gold4,424.90+0.57%Silver66.56+1.66%Copper6.62+0.43%Platinum1,803.50+0.68%Palladium1,306.20+1.24%WTI100.30-1.58%Brent103.87-0.91%Henry Hub2.91+0.38%Gasoline3.53+0.58%Heating oil5.06-1.10%Wheat714.25-1.75%Corn527.50-0.57%Soybeans1,303.50-1.23%Coffee294.55+1.38%Sugar17.36-0.34%Cocoa5,327.00-7.71%Cotton77.38-1.31%Lithium ETF70.50-0.56%Uranium ETF41.65-2.41%Rare Earths ETF69.06-0.06%Copper Miners ETF87.28+0.77%Bitcoin81,244.98+0.42%Ethereum2,637.29+0.99%Solana111.48-0.99%S&P 5007,650.50+0.17%Nasdaq26,522.54+0.39%Dow51,682.64-0.18%Nikkei 22565,018.95+1.38%Hang Seng24,750.78+0.60%EuroStoxx 506,236.20-1.37%Dollar (DXY)100.22+0.00%EUR/USD1.15+0.18%USD/JPY156.85+0.46%GBP/USD1.34+0.26%USD/CNY6.70-0.15%US 10Y yield5.00+1.03%US 5Y yield4.86+1.15%Gold4,424.90+0.57%Silver66.56+1.66%Copper6.62+0.43%Platinum1,803.50+0.68%Palladium1,306.20+1.24%WTI100.30-1.58%Brent103.87-0.91%Henry Hub2.91+0.38%Gasoline3.53+0.58%Heating oil5.06-1.10%Wheat714.25-1.75%Corn527.50-0.57%Soybeans1,303.50-1.23%Coffee294.55+1.38%Sugar17.36-0.34%Cocoa5,327.00-7.71%Cotton77.38-1.31%Lithium ETF70.50-0.56%Uranium ETF41.65-2.41%Rare Earths ETF69.06-0.06%Copper Miners ETF87.28+0.77%Bitcoin81,244.98+0.42%Ethereum2,637.29+0.99%Solana111.48-0.99%

Commodities

A commodity number means nothing until you know what it is being compared against. A crack spread in the 99th percentile, a crush at $2.30, an ONI at +1.8 — each is a level in search of a denominator, and the denominator is where the work is. Every section below carries its own: the same week in twenty prior years, the same calendar window in non-event years, the contract's own life, the 1981-2010 climatology.

What moved: US stocks against the five-year band

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Curves and spreads, today

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Positioning: where the crowd already is

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Energy inventories

Working gas in storage against its five-year band

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US crude stocks ex-SPR against their five-year band

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US total gasoline stocks against their five-year band

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US natural gas — storage, the weekly surprise, and the widowmaker

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Forward curves

WTI forward curve

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Henry Hub natural gas forward curve

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RBOB gasoline forward curve

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ULSD (heating oil) forward curve

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WTI-Brent analysis

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Forward curve structure — minus what the calendar is saying

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Metals

LME copper cash minus 3-month

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LME copper warehouse stocks

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Gold, LBMA PM fix

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Silver, LBMA fix

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Grains and oilseeds

Corn: world stocks-to-use, with and without China

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Wheat: world stocks-to-use, with and without China

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Soybeans: world stocks-to-use, with and without China

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Palm oil: world stocks-to-use, with and without China

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Rice: world stocks-to-use, with and without China

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Grain balance sheets — and what USDA changed its mind about

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Margins, weather and demand

Refining margins — and the same margins against their own season

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Soybean crush — and which half of the complex is paying it

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El Nino / La Nina — and what it has been worth

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Heating demand, weighted by who actually burns the gas

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Deeper cuts

World crop balance sheets — and the two adjustments that change them

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Options surface — what crude's listed market is pricing

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Chokepoints and freight

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Cointegration — pairs that mean-revert, and pairs that stopped

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Petro-FX linkage

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This week's move, attributed

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Do the fundamentals lead the price?

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The Energy tree — where the level comes from

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Every figure is computed at build time from official, keyless sources — NOAA CPC, EIA, USDA, CFTC, CME and CBOT settlements, LBMA and LME. Where a feed failed, the pane says so rather than serving a stale number as a current one. Brent has no forward-curve pane: no keyless, verified ICE Brent strip is wired, so the Brent leg appears only in the WTI-Brent spread. Softs (coffee, cocoa, sugar, cotton) have no keyless official balance or price series wired yet, so no softs pane is shown; palm oil is covered through USDA PSD. Back to the terminal →
Evidence grades. Every figure on this site carries a grade assigned by the validation layer, not by the author: D a descriptive fact computed from the record; C a historical distribution with its sample count; N a hypothesis tested and unable to beat chance under the stated control; T a tested-positive claim under the full protocol — none exists as of this build, which is why no forecast appears. Nulls are published in the null-result registry. MacroBessent is a research publication and is not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Sources and as-of dates are on every chart.
How the figures on this page are constructed is proprietary. For methodology questions, write to e@finkfi.com.