S&P 5007,650.50+0.17%Nasdaq26,522.54+0.39%Dow51,682.64-0.18%Nikkei 22565,018.95+1.38%Hang Seng24,750.78+0.60%EuroStoxx 506,236.20-1.37%Dollar (DXY)100.22+0.00%EUR/USD1.15+0.18%USD/JPY156.85+0.46%GBP/USD1.34+0.26%USD/CNY6.70-0.15%US 10Y yield5.00+1.03%US 5Y yield4.86+1.15%Gold4,424.90+0.57%Silver66.56+1.66%Copper6.62+0.43%Platinum1,803.50+0.68%Palladium1,306.20+1.24%WTI100.30-1.58%Brent103.87-0.91%Henry Hub2.91+0.38%Gasoline3.53+0.58%Heating oil5.06-1.10%Wheat714.25-1.75%Corn527.50-0.57%Soybeans1,303.50-1.23%Coffee294.55+1.38%Sugar17.36-0.34%Cocoa5,327.00-7.71%Cotton77.38-1.31%Lithium ETF70.50-0.56%Uranium ETF41.65-2.41%Rare Earths ETF69.06-0.06%Copper Miners ETF87.28+0.77%Bitcoin81,244.98+0.42%Ethereum2,637.29+0.99%Solana111.48-0.99%S&P 5007,650.50+0.17%Nasdaq26,522.54+0.39%Dow51,682.64-0.18%Nikkei 22565,018.95+1.38%Hang Seng24,750.78+0.60%EuroStoxx 506,236.20-1.37%Dollar (DXY)100.22+0.00%EUR/USD1.15+0.18%USD/JPY156.85+0.46%GBP/USD1.34+0.26%USD/CNY6.70-0.15%US 10Y yield5.00+1.03%US 5Y yield4.86+1.15%Gold4,424.90+0.57%Silver66.56+1.66%Copper6.62+0.43%Platinum1,803.50+0.68%Palladium1,306.20+1.24%WTI100.30-1.58%Brent103.87-0.91%Henry Hub2.91+0.38%Gasoline3.53+0.58%Heating oil5.06-1.10%Wheat714.25-1.75%Corn527.50-0.57%Soybeans1,303.50-1.23%Coffee294.55+1.38%Sugar17.36-0.34%Cocoa5,327.00-7.71%Cotton77.38-1.31%Lithium ETF70.50-0.56%Uranium ETF41.65-2.41%Rare Earths ETF69.06-0.06%Copper Miners ETF87.28+0.77%Bitcoin81,244.98+0.42%Ethereum2,637.29+0.99%Solana111.48-0.99%

Crypto

What the options market is pricing across the whole expiry ladder, what the futures pay to carry, and where the prediction-market crowd leaves the vol-implied fair value.

What the options market is pricing

This section holds 1 row, 3 figures, 2 charts. They are absent from this page, not hidden. Held for Full Access. Sign in or subscribe.

The futures basis

Held for Full Access. Sign in or subscribe.

Where the crowd leaves the model

This section holds 12 rows, 4 figures, 9 charts. They are absent from this page, not hidden. Held for Full Access. Sign in or subscribe.

Regime and liquidity

Regime agreement, with Bitcoin over it

This section holds 27 rows, 4 figures, 1 chart. They are absent from this page, not hidden. Held for Full Access. Sign in or subscribe.

Crypto liquidity — what it costs to carry the position

This section holds 2 rows, 1 figure. They are absent from this page, not hidden. Held for Full Access. Sign in or subscribe.

Price

BTC, two years daily

Held for Full Access. Sign in or subscribe.

ETH, two years daily

Held for Full Access. Sign in or subscribe.

The options surface

At-the-money implied vol by expiry

Held for Full Access. Sign in or subscribe.

25-delta risk reversal by expiry

Held for Full Access. Sign in or subscribe.

DVOL, one year daily

Held for Full Access. Sign in or subscribe.

Annualised basis by expiry

Held for Full Access. Sign in or subscribe.

The crowd

Crowd against model, every live binary

This section holds 7 rows, 1 chart. They are absent from this page, not hidden. Held for Full Access. Sign in or subscribe.

Cross-asset regime — and how much of it is hindsight

This section holds 25 rows, 4 figures, 7 charts. They are absent from this page, not hidden. Held for Full Access. Sign in or subscribe.

Deeper cuts

Through time — level, distribution, seasonality and range

This section holds 33 rows, 30 figures, 20 charts. They are absent from this page, not hidden. Held for Full Access. Sign in or subscribe.

Do the fundamentals lead the price?

This section holds 50 rows, 4 figures, 11 charts. They are absent from this page, not hidden. Held for Full Access. Sign in or subscribe.

This week's move, attributed

This section holds 28 rows, 4 figures, 2 charts. They are absent from this page, not hidden. Held for Full Access. Sign in or subscribe.

The Bitcoin tree — where the level comes from

This section holds 10 charts. They are absent from this page, not hidden. Held for Full Access. Sign in or subscribe.

Keyless sources: Deribit's public API, FRED's Coinbase closes and Polymarket. Marks are Deribit's own, not traded prints; the 25-delta strikes are a moneyness proxy. Back to the terminal →

Evidence grades. Every figure on this site carries a grade assigned by the validation layer, not by the author: D a descriptive fact computed from the record; C a historical distribution with its sample count; N a hypothesis tested and unable to beat chance under the stated control; T a tested-positive claim under the full protocol — none exists as of this build, which is why no forecast appears. Nulls are published in the null-result registry. MacroBessent is a research publication and is not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Sources and as-of dates are on every chart.

How the figures on this page are constructed is proprietary. For methodology questions, write to e@finkfi.com.