Prediction Markets — MacroBessent Research

Model book: paper NAV Das of 2026-09-19T13:05:49Z

ReadData

equity

$11,584

start $10,000

return

+15.84%

since the first mark

open

positions

resolved

positions

PAPER portfolio. No real order is ever sent.

modelbook.db · available_at 2026-09-19T13:05:49Z

No tabular rows behind this section in this build — the Read tab carries everything the panel published.

The next Fed meeting, as the crowd prices it Das of 2026-09-19 13:18 UTC

ReadData

cut50+

CME not published this build

cut25

CME not published this build

hike25

56%

CME not published this build

hike50+

CME not published this build

Polymarket, meeting 2026-10 · available_at 2026-09-19 13:18 UTC

polymarket cross · 4 rows

market title	meeting	bucket	poly p	fedwatch p	divergence pts
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	2026-10	cut25	0.01	not reported	not reported
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	2026-10	cut50+	0.00	not reported	not reported
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	2026-10	hike25	0.56	not reported	not reported
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	2026-10	hike50+	0.01	not reported	not reported

11 rows and 3 fields withheld at this tier: absent from the page, not hidden in it.

Is the crowd calibrated? Cas of 2026-09-06

ReadData

trade-time Brier

0.1685

0.25 is a coin flip

calibration error

0.0072

ECE

trades scored

121,671,888

both sides of every trade

Kalshi resolved trades · grade C · available_at 2026-09-06

calibration · 20 rows

price	win rate	n
2.70	0.02	15,527,762
8.00	0.07	11,196,789
13.00	0.12	10,382,666
18.00	0.18	10,281,017
23.00	0.24	10,585,305
28.10	0.28	11,055,486
33.00	0.35	11,745,784
38.00	0.38	12,827,019
43.10	0.43	13,501,720
48.00	0.48	16,287,905
53.00	0.53	15,854,010
58.00	0.59	13,242,620
63.00	0.63	12,601,610
68.00	0.66	11,630,980
73.00	0.73	10,914,749
78.00	0.77	10,537,856
83.00	0.84	10,193,288
88.10	0.89	10,559,501
93.10	0.94	11,384,540
97.80	0.98	13,033,081

ev by side · 21 rows

price bucket	ev yes	n yes	ev no	n no
-4-0c	not reported	0	18.18	44
1-5c	-0.90	6,244,579	-0.82	2,742,169
6-10c	-1.47	5,132,151	-1.22	1,409,075
11-15c	-1.68	4,757,257	-1.43	1,215,293
16-20c	-1.26	4,732,423	-1.51	1,167,190
21-25c	0.41	4,801,333	-0.73	1,158,627
26-30c	-1.54	5,042,834	-0.89	1,209,866
31-35c	1.62	4,965,403	0.26	1,283,011
36-40c	-2.02	5,313,385	-0.82	1,427,393
41-45c	-2.85	5,079,751	-0.05	1,549,041
46-50c	-2.09	5,987,029	0.12	2,195,379
51-55c	-2.17	5,559,706	0.15	2,382,683
56-60c	-1.87	4,665,405	-0.15	1,996,360
61-65c	-2.19	4,190,738	-0.17	1,812,968
66-70c	-5.00	3,525,456	-0.74	1,776,726
71-75c	-1.74	2,972,744	-0.31	1,776,642
76-80c	-3.01	2,754,783	-0.64	1,853,384
81-85c	-0.54	2,360,581	-0.16	1,940,645
86-90c	-0.68	2,323,104	0.01	2,163,746
91-95c	-0.79	2,206,723	-0.30	2,542,570
96-99c	-0.94	2,086,536	-0.23	3,367,155

longshot volume share by quarter · 20 rows

quarter	share	contracts
2021-Q2	0.00	5
2021-Q3	0.27	3,700,853
2021-Q4	0.24	6,047,822
2022-Q1	0.29	7,442,620
2022-Q2	0.37	18,979,098
2022-Q3	0.33	25,557,951
2022-Q4	0.29	19,397,829
2023-Q1	0.27	19,155,895
2023-Q2	0.42	50,735,932
2023-Q3	0.45	50,197,981
2023-Q4	0.46	59,864,967
2024-Q1	0.29	65,126,261
2024-Q2	0.28	92,739,977
2024-Q3	0.32	73,967,583
2024-Q4	0.33	1,732,539,239
2025-Q1	0.30	844,715,042
2025-Q2	0.32	1,716,397,858
2025-Q3	0.25	3,084,607,762
2025-Q4	0.26	9,984,744,984
2026-Q1	0.31	7,330,247,255

calibration mad by year · 6 rows

year	mad cents
2021	0.59
2022	1.92
2023	2.00
2024	4.47
2025	2.18
2026	1.05

calibration mad by month · 51 rows

month	mad cents	n
2021-08	1.45	2,282
2021-10	0.52	3,034
2021-11	0.39	2,012
2021-12	0.06	2,462
2022-01	0.90	5,906
2022-04	2.93	4,280
2022-05	1.99	127,214
2022-06	1.96	224,796
2022-07	2.45	229,908
2022-08	1.12	297,818
2022-09	2.02	249,188
2022-10	1.80	208,634
2022-11	2.46	168,694
2022-12	2.06	124,122
2023-01	2.73	53,088
2023-02	2.88	100,578
2023-03	1.23	351,430
2023-04	1.71	271,242
2023-05	2.52	463,642
2023-06	1.35	421,682
2023-07	2.79	443,192
2023-08	2.22	244,042
2023-09	1.59	207,136
2023-10	1.52	316,192
2023-11	2.01	191,146
2023-12	2.43	218,992
2024-01	3.01	385,032
2024-02	1.63	372,168
2024-03	1.88	353,356
2024-04	1.63	337,132
2024-05	1.31	241,464
2024-06	2.11	232,672
2024-07	1.98	249,528
2024-08	1.61	220,996
2024-09	3.67	217,104
2024-10	12.41	870,024
2024-11	5.73	5,123,450
2024-12	0.92	2,016,926
2025-01	0.94	2,427,836
2025-02	2.35	3,364,986
2025-03	4.12	5,529,812
2025-04	3.44	3,930,924
2025-05	2.45	4,726,954
2025-06	2.94	5,838,492
2025-07	1.85	5,694,832
2025-08	1.59	5,908,696
2025-09	2.58	13,549,064
2025-10	2.70	19,697,290
2025-11	1.12	15,550,418
2025-12	1.95	54,292,896
2026-01	1.05	86,603,532

scalars

field	value
dataset	TrevorJS/kalshi-trades
computed at	2026-09-06T06:31:54.179864+00:00
n trades analyzed	121,671,888
n resolved markets	3,722,314
brier trade time	0.17
ece	0.01
log loss	0.50
longshot volume share latest	0.31

The model book

Model book NAV at every daily mark (paper) Das of 2026-09-19

ReadData

Total paper equity (cash plus positions marked to the live Polymarket book) at each daily mark, 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-19, n=13 marks. PAPER: no order is ever sent; seeded positions carry gains inherited from the price our signal logged. · modelbook.db · available_at 2026-09-19

daily marks · 13 rows

date	cash	positions value	total	n positions
2026-09-06	5,000.00	6,482.51	11,482.51	25
2026-09-07	5,000.00	6,472.47	11,472.47	25
2026-09-08	5,000.00	6,506.14	11,506.14	25
2026-09-10	5,000.00	6,551.82	11,551.82	25
2026-09-11	5,000.00	6,478.80	11,478.80	25
2026-09-12	5,000.00	6,469.76	11,469.76	25
2026-09-13	5,000.00	6,468.34	11,468.34	25
2026-09-14	5,000.00	6,462.47	11,462.47	25
2026-09-15	5,000.00	6,493.90	11,493.90	25
2026-09-16	5,000.00	6,517.05	11,517.05	25
2026-09-17	5,000.00	6,571.03	11,571.03	25
2026-09-18	5,000.00	6,569.57	11,569.57	25
2026-09-19	5,000.00	6,583.58	11,583.58	25

The MacroBessent Model Book — every fill, fee and slippage bp published Das of 2026-09-19T13:05:49Z

ReadData

equity

$11,584

start $10,000

return

15.84%

open

resolved

win rate appears as they land

market	side	entry	now	unrlzd
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?	NO	0.62	0.93	+98
Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026?	NO	0.90	0.87	-7
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026?	NO	0.89	0.79	-22
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?	NO	0.72	0.95	+64
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	NO	0.72	0.88	+45
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?	NO	0.79	0.94	+37
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?	NO	0.90	0.95	+12
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?	NO	0.90	0.99	+20
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026?	NO	0.85	0.34	-119
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?	NO	0.43	0.91	+222
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	NO	0.69	0.93	+68
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?	NO	0.84	0.62	-52
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	NO	0.79	0.40	-100
Will Ethereum reach $2,750 by December 31, 2026?	NO	0.76	0.14	-164
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?	NO	0.75	0.20	-148
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,500-$7,000 in December?	NO	0.86	0.90	+9
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?	NO	0.74	0.70	-9
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?	NO	0.89	0.93	+8
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?	NO	0.87	0.94	+17
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?	NO	0.76	0.94	+46
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	NO	0.44	0.88	+198
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	NO	0.49	0.90	+169
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?	NO	0.21	0.82	+581
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	NO	0.90	0.68	-50
Will Solana dip to $70 by December 31, 2026?	NO	0.19	0.82	+663

PAPER portfolio — no real orders are ever sent. Entries walk the REAL Polymarket order book (slippage + levels + live fee rate recorded per trade). Seeded positions are marked seed_logged: entered at the price our signal logged when it fired, with the live price at seed time recorded alongside — early mark-to-market gains are inherited from that history and labeled, never claimed as execution. Signals: our published GBM/DVOL fair-value divergences, fee-adjusted, $200 flat stakes.

open positions · 25 rows

slug	question	outcome	shares	avg entry	live price	current value	unrealized pnl
will-solana-dip-to-50-by-december-31-2026-from-june-8	Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?	no	322.58	0.62	0.93	298.39	98.39
will-solana-reach-180-by-december-31-2026	Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026?	no	222.22	0.90	0.87	192.56	-7.44
will-solana-reach-160-by-december-31-2026	Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026?	no	224.72	0.89	0.79	177.53	-22.47
will-solana-dip-to-40-by-december-31-2026-343-482	Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?	no	277.78	0.72	0.95	263.89	63.89
spx-hit-6200-low-dec-2026	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	no	278.94	0.72	0.88	244.63	44.63
spx-hit-5800-low-dec-2026	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?	no	253.16	0.79	0.94	236.71	36.71
spx-hit-5200-low-dec-2026	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?	no	222.22	0.90	0.95	212.22	12.22
will-solana-dip-to-20-by-december-31-2026-143-365	Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?	no	222.22	0.90	0.99	219.67	19.67
will-ethereum-reach-3000-by-december-31-2026-from-june-8	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026?	no	235.29	0.85	0.34	81.18	-118.82
will-solana-dip-to-60-by-december-31-2026-249-524	Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?	no	466.20	0.43	0.91	422.14	222.14
will-bitcoin-dip-to-50000-by-december-31-2026-454-325-222-878-949-487-451-853-52	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	no	289.86	0.69	0.93	268.12	68.12
will-bitcoin-reach-95000-by-december-31-2026-from-june-8	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?	no	238.10	0.84	0.62	147.62	-52.38
will-bitcoin-reach-90000-by-december-31-2026-113-862-581-343	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	no	253.16	0.79	0.40	100.00	-100.00
will-ethereum-reach-2750-by-december-31-2026-from-june-8	Will Ethereum reach $2,750 by December 31, 2026?	no	263.16	0.76	0.14	35.53	-164.47
will-bitcoin-reach-85000-by-december-31-2026-from-june-8	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?	no	266.67	0.75	0.20	52.00	-148.00
spx-close-6500-7000-dec-2026	Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,500-$7,000 in December?	no	232.56	0.86	0.90	209.30	9.30
spx-hit-8200-high-dec-2026	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?	no	270.27	0.74	0.70	190.54	-9.46
spx-close-below-6000-dec-2026	Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?	no	224.72	0.89	0.93	207.87	7.87
will-ethereum-dip-to-1000-by-december-31-2026-273-175	Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?	no	229.89	0.87	0.94	217.24	17.24
will-ethereum-dip-to-1250-by-december-31-2026-from-june-8	Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?	no	263.16	0.76	0.94	246.05	46.05
will-bitcoin-dip-to-55000-by-december-31-2026-527-627-868-745-188-361-314-673-61	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	no	454.55	0.44	0.88	397.73	197.73
will-ethereum-dip-to-1500-by-december-31-2026-865-787	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	no	408.16	0.49	0.90	368.57	168.57
will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-by-december-31-2026-from-july-21	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?	no	952.38	0.21	0.82	780.95	580.95
will-ethereum-reach-3500-by-december-31-2026	Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	no	222.22	0.90	0.68	150.00	-50.00
will-solana-dip-to-70-by-december-31-2026-from-july-6	Will Solana dip to $70 by December 31, 2026?	no	1,052.63	0.19	0.82	863.16	663.16

equity curve · 13 rows

date	cash	positions value	total	n positions
2026-09-06	5,000.00	6,482.51	11,482.51	25
2026-09-07	5,000.00	6,472.47	11,472.47	25
2026-09-08	5,000.00	6,506.14	11,506.14	25
2026-09-10	5,000.00	6,551.82	11,551.82	25
2026-09-11	5,000.00	6,478.80	11,478.80	25
2026-09-12	5,000.00	6,469.76	11,469.76	25
2026-09-13	5,000.00	6,468.34	11,468.34	25
2026-09-14	5,000.00	6,462.47	11,462.47	25
2026-09-15	5,000.00	6,493.90	11,493.90	25
2026-09-16	5,000.00	6,517.05	11,517.05	25
2026-09-17	5,000.00	6,571.03	11,571.03	25
2026-09-18	5,000.00	6,569.57	11,569.57	25
2026-09-19	5,000.00	6,583.58	11,583.58	25

analytics

key	value
start_total	11,482.51
latest_total	11,583.58
return_pct	15.84
max_drawdown_pct	0.77
n_snapshots	13
method	mark-to-market from daily equity snapshots (live midpoints); engine realized-cas

account

key	value
starting_balance	10,000.00
cash	5,000.00
positions_value	6,583.58
total_value	11,583.58
unrealized_plus_realized_pnl	1,583.58

Crowd against model

Crypto binaries: crowd against model Das of 2026-09-19 13:18 UTC

ReadData

One point per BTC/ETH price binary, n=4 of 15; the rest are held for Full Access. Above the dashed line the crowd pays more than the model; the fee-adjusted gaps are in the pane beside. · Polymarket; Deribit DVOL · available_at 2026-09-19 13:18 UTC

spot

key	value
BTC	81,324.00
ETH	2,641.64

markets · 4 rows

question	symbol	K	T days	model	poly p	fair p	fair p dvol	divergence pts	fee adj divergence pts
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 September 14-20?	ETH	2,700.00	1.61	one-touch 2*N(d2)	0.25	0.43	0.51	17.80	16.50
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 September 14-20?	BTC	84,000.00	1.61	one-touch 2*N(d2)	0.08	0.01	0.16	-6.90	-6.40
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 September 14-20?	BTC	80,000.00	1.61	one-touch 2*N(d2)	0.12	0.19	0.48	6.90	6.20
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 19?	BTC	82,000.00	0.11	terminal N(d2)	0.04	0.01	0.09	-3.50	-3.20

11 rows and 6 fields withheld at this tier: absent from the page, not hidden in it.

Crypto binaries — model fair value vs crowd Das of 2026-09-19 13:18 UTC

ReadHistoryData

market	crowd	GBM (DVOL-σ)	gap	fee-adj
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 September 14-20?	25%	51%	+18	+16
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 September 14-20?	8%	16%	-7	-6
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 September 14-20?	12%	48%	+7	+6
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 19?	4%	9%	-4	-3

· touch claims priced by reflection (2·N(d2)); fees per Polymarket Fee-V2 — a gap that doesn't survive fees isn't a gap.

15 stored builds since 2026-09-05 — every numeric leaf of this panel is written to signal_history at each build, so a repeated value can mean the upstream had not published, not that nothing moved.

markets › 0 › K

2026-09-05 2,700.00 → 2026-09-19 2,700.00

markets › 1 › K

2026-09-05 1,800.00 → 2026-09-19 84,000.00

markets › 10 › K

2026-09-05 2,600.00 → 2026-09-19 67,500.00

markets › 11 › K

2026-09-05 1,600.00 → 2026-09-19 2,100.00

markets › 12 › K

2026-09-05 3,300.00 → 2026-09-19 70,000.00

markets › 13 › K

2026-09-05 1,500.00 → 2026-09-19 3,300.00

markets › 14 › K

2026-09-05 82,500.00 → 2026-09-19 2,000.00

markets › 2 › K

2026-09-05 2,600.00 → 2026-09-19 80,000.00

spot

key	value
BTC	81,324.00
ETH	2,641.64

markets · 4 rows

question	symbol	K	T days	model	poly p	fair p	fair p dvol	divergence pts	fee adj divergence pts
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 September 14-20?	ETH	2,700.00	1.61	one-touch 2*N(d2)	0.25	0.43	0.51	17.80	16.50
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 September 14-20?	BTC	84,000.00	1.61	one-touch 2*N(d2)	0.08	0.01	0.16	-6.90	-6.40
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 September 14-20?	BTC	80,000.00	1.61	one-touch 2*N(d2)	0.12	0.19	0.48	6.90	6.20
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 19?	BTC	82,000.00	0.11	terminal N(d2)	0.04	0.01	0.09	-3.50	-3.20

11 rows and 6 fields withheld at this tier: absent from the page, not hidden in it.

The Fed path

Fed path: outcome odds by meeting Das of 2026-09-19 13:18 UTC

ReadData

The stepped chart is held for Full Access: this page carries 4 of 15 rows.

polymarket cross · 4 rows

market title	meeting	bucket	poly p	fedwatch p	divergence pts
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	2026-10	cut25	0.01	not reported	not reported
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	2026-10	cut50+	0.00	not reported	not reported
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	2026-10	hike25	0.56	not reported	not reported
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	2026-10	hike50+	0.01	not reported	not reported

11 rows and 3 fields withheld at this tier: absent from the page, not hidden in it.

Fed path — odds by meeting Das of 2026-09-19 13:18 UTC

ReadHistoryData

meeting	distribution
2026-10	cut25 1% · cut50+ 0% · hike25 56% · hike50+ 1%

October FOMC: Polymarket puts 56% on hike25; CME FedWatch side unavailable (IP-blocked), no divergence computed

15 stored builds since 2026-09-05 — every numeric leaf of this panel is written to signal_history at each build, so a repeated value can mean the upstream had not published, not that nothing moved.

polymarket cross › 0 › poly p

2026-09-05 0.00 → 2026-09-19 0.01

polymarket cross › 1 › poly p

2026-09-05 0.00 → 2026-09-19 0.00

polymarket cross › 10 › poly p

2026-09-05 0.06 → 2026-09-19 0.06

polymarket cross › 11 › poly p

2026-09-05 0.01 → 2026-09-19 0.04

polymarket cross › 12 › poly p

2026-09-05 0.45 → 2026-09-19 0.34

polymarket cross › 13 › poly p

2026-09-05 0.02 → 2026-09-19 0.02

polymarket cross › 14 › poly p

2026-09-05 0.45 → 2026-09-19 0.57

polymarket cross › 2 › poly p

2026-09-05 0.49 → 2026-09-19 0.56

polymarket cross · 4 rows

market title	meeting	bucket	poly p	fedwatch p	divergence pts
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	2026-10	cut25	0.01	not reported	not reported
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	2026-10	cut50+	0.00	not reported	not reported
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	2026-10	hike25	0.56	not reported	not reported
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	2026-10	hike50+	0.01	not reported	not reported

11 rows and 3 fields withheld at this tier: absent from the page, not hidden in it.

The board through time

Implied odds through time Das of 2026-09-19 13:11 UTC

ReadData

Implied odds of the most persistently tracked contracts, at every stored build. Each track is keyed by the market URL, so a contract that moves position on the board keeps its own line. · our own build archive, 16 builds from 2026-09-04

45 contracts have at least two stored observations. The archive begins 2026-09-04, which is the whole record and the reason these tracks are short.

tracks · 20 rows

market	tag	points	first	last
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	geopolitics	16	14.00	16.00
US military action against Cuba by...? — US strike on Cuba by December 31?	geopolitics	16	14.00	16.00
Iran leader end of 2026? — Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of	geopolitics	16	84.00	84.00
China Annual GDP Growth 2026 — Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be betw	economy	16	90.00	90.00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	geopolitics	16	26.00	18.00
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	economy	16	12.00	14.00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? — Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreeme	geopolitics	16	22.00	22.00
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? — Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	geopolitics	14	22.00	16.00
Largest Company end of December 2026? — Will NVIDIA be the largest company in th	economy	12	80.00	72.00
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? — Will Benjamin Netanyahu be t	geopolitics	12	28.00	28.00
Warsh out as Fed Chair by…? — Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2027?	fed	11	10.00	10.00
Which companies will the US take a stake in? — Will the US federal government ta	economy	10	14.00	17.00
Will ground beef hit __ in 2026? — Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026?	inflation	10	12.00	10.00
Fed rate hike in 2026?	fed	9	72.00	86.00
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? — Will the upper bound of the targ	fed	9	10.00	32.00
What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on September 30? — Will the	economy	6	12.00	13.00
How many dissent at the September Fed meeting? — Will no one dissent the Septemb	fed	6	10.00	10.00
Bank of Japan Decision in October? — No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates	economy	6	88.00	14.00
Mexico Annual Inflation 2026 — Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.	inflation	5	20.00	21.00
Fed rate hike by...? — Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	fed	5	82.00	86.00

scalars

field	value
builds	16
tracked contracts	45

Depth and concentration through time Das of 2026-09-19 13:11 UTC

ReadData

Total volume across every contract on the tracked board, at each stored build. This is how much money stands behind the board as a whole, not the depth of any one order book. · our own build archive, 16 builds from 2026-09-04

Herfindahl index of volume shares across the board (0-10,000: 1,500 is competitive, 2,500 concentrated) with the largest single contract's share beside it. A board whose HHI rises while volume is flat is the same money crowding into fewer questions. · our own build archive, 16 builds

board volume

$198m

20 contracts tracked

HHI

2,027

2,500 is a concentrated board

largest contract

34%

of tracked volume

This is board-level concentration of volume, not order-book depth. We do not store the book, so nothing here claims to measure how much size a given contract would absorb; the holder-level question — whether a price is a crowd or five wallets — is the weekly Depth report, which scans the book live.

rows · 16 rows

date	n markets	volume usd	hhi	top share	top3 share
2026-09-04	12	140,351,455.00	3,044.40	46.15	81.51
2026-09-05	20	185,763,530.00	2,133.30	34.92	75.16
2026-09-06	20	185,865,295.00	2,133.10	34.90	75.17
2026-09-07	20	187,200,100.00	2,120.40	34.68	75.02
2026-09-08	20	187,028,953.00	2,134.10	34.76	75.28
2026-09-09	20	188,201,455.00	2,121.70	34.57	75.09
2026-09-10	20	190,077,338.00	2,095.60	34.39	74.56
2026-09-11	20	177,673,091.00	2,050.70	36.94	66.40
2026-09-12	20	158,571,180.00	2,502.80	41.53	73.65
2026-09-13	20	161,407,795.00	2,423.30	40.84	72.48
2026-09-14	20	195,960,176.00	2,002.50	33.74	72.96
2026-09-15	20	371,316,171.00	2,932.80	48.73	77.21
2026-09-16	20	188,533,459.00	2,183.40	35.26	76.23
2026-09-17	20	188,894,509.00	2,184.00	35.27	76.22
2026-09-18	20	197,044,179.00	2,033.30	33.99	73.31
2026-09-19	20	197,564,115.00	2,026.90	33.94	73.17

When a contract reprices Das of 2026-09-19 13:11 UTC

ReadData

The question this pane asks: when a tracked contract reprices by 10 points between builds, what did crude and the VIX do over the following 5 sessions? Geopolitics is the lane worth watching, and in the stored window it has produced 0 such moves — the count is the finding, and the table below carries every tagged lane so the mechanism is visible rather than asserted.

contract	lane	odds	move	WTI 5d	VIX 5d	on
Fed rate hike in 2026?	fed	78→90	+12	not yet	not yet	2026-09-11
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? — Will no Fed rate	fed	22→10	-12	not yet	not yet	2026-09-11
Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) — Will the Fed decide differ	fed	74→84	+10	not yet	not yet	2026-09-12
Fed rate hike by...? — Fed Rate Hike by September 20	fed	78→88	+10	not yet	not yet	2026-09-14
US recession by end of 2026?	economy	10→23	+13	not yet	not yet	2026-09-15
Bank of Japan Decision in October? — No change in Ba	economy	87→21	-66	not yet	not yet	2026-09-16
US recession by end of 2026?	economy	23→12	-11	not yet	not yet	2026-09-16
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by..	tariffs	20→10	-10	not yet	not yet	2026-09-17
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? — Will	fed	16→28	+12	not yet	not yet	2026-09-17
Bank of Japan Decision in October? — No change in Ba	economy	21→82	+61	not yet	not yet	2026-09-18
Bank of Japan Decision in October? — No change in Ba	economy	82→14	-68	not yet	not yet	2026-09-19

11 events in 16 stored builds since 2026-09-04. Forward responses are WTI (FRED DCOILWTICO, per cent) and the VIX (FRED VIXCLS, points) over 5 sessions. WTI: the 5-session window has not closed: the series ends 2026-09-15; VIX: the 5-session window has not closed: the series ends 2026-09-17. No aggregate is published: the event-study floor is 15 events and this is 0, so what stands here is a count and a mechanism, not a claim.

rows · 11 rows

date	prior date	tag	title	from	to	move pts	WTI	WTI why	VIX
2026-09-11	2026-09-10	fed	Fed rate hike in 2026?	78.00	90.00	12.00	not reported	the 5-session window has not closed: the series ends 2026-09-15	not reported
2026-09-11	2026-09-10	fed	How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? — Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	22.00	10.00	-12.00	not reported	the 5-session window has not closed: the series ends 2026-09-15	not reported
2026-09-12	2026-09-10	fed	Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) — Will the Fed decide differently in the next three deci	74.00	84.00	10.00	not reported	the 5-session window has not closed: the series ends 2026-09-15	not reported
2026-09-14	2026-09-13	fed	Fed rate hike by...? — Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	78.00	88.00	10.00	not reported	the 5-session window has not closed: the series ends 2026-09-15	not reported
2026-09-15	2026-09-14	economy	US recession by end of 2026?	10.00	23.00	13.00	not reported	the 5-session window has not closed: the series ends 2026-09-15	not reported
2026-09-16	2026-09-15	economy	Bank of Japan Decision in October? — No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates	87.00	21.00	-66.00	not reported	the 5-session window has not closed: the series ends 2026-09-15	not reported
2026-09-16	2026-09-15	economy	US recession by end of 2026?	23.00	12.00	-11.00	not reported	the 5-session window has not closed: the series ends 2026-09-15	not reported
2026-09-17	2026-09-16	tariffs	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...? — US-Canada diplomatic ag	20.00	10.00	-10.00	not reported	the 5-session window has not closed: the series ends 2026-09-15	not reported
2026-09-17	2026-09-16	fed	What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? — Will the upper bound of the targ	16.00	28.00	12.00	not reported	the 5-session window has not closed: the series ends 2026-09-15	not reported
2026-09-18	2026-09-17	economy	Bank of Japan Decision in October? — No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates	21.00	82.00	61.00	not reported	the 5-session window has not closed: the series ends 2026-09-15	not reported
2026-09-19	2026-09-18	economy	Bank of Japan Decision in October? — No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates	82.00	14.00	-68.00	not reported	the 5-session window has not closed: the series ends 2026-09-15	not reported

aggregate · 2 rows

key	n	unit	mean	sign consistency
WTI	0	%	not reported	not reported
VIX	0	pts	not reported	not reported

scalars

field	value
threshold pts	10
horizon days	5
n events	11
n geopolitics	0

Calibration

Are prediction markets calibrated? (154M resolved Kalshi trades, 2021-2026) Cas of 2026-09-06

ReadEV by sideError by yearHistoryData

log loss 0.5016 (trade-time, both sides) — the proper score that punishes confident misses harder than Brier.

Trade-time Brier 0.1685 · ECE 0.0072 · 121,671,888 trades analyzed. The dashed line is perfect calibration (price == win rate); points below it are prices the crowd habitually paid too much for. · 154M resolved Kalshi trades, 2021-2026 (grade C, n per point)

price	actual win rate	trades
2.7	2.4%	15,527,762
8.0	7.4%	11,196,789
13.0	12.2%	10,382,666
18.0	17.6%	10,281,017
23.0	23.9%	10,585,305
28.1	27.9%	11,055,486
33.0	35.3%	11,745,784
38.0	37.9%	12,827,019
43.1	42.8%	13,501,720
48.0	48.0%	16,287,905
53.0	52.9%	15,854,010
58.0	58.5%	13,242,620
63.0	62.9%	12,601,610
68.0	65.7%	11,630,980
73.0	73.1%	10,914,749
78.0	77.2%	10,537,856
83.0	83.7%	10,193,288
88.1	88.9%	10,559,501
93.1	93.6%	11,384,540
97.8	98.0%	13,033,081

trade-time Brier 0.1685 · ECE 0.0072 · 121,671,888 trades analyzed

· Across 121,671,888 resolved trades (both sides scored), Kalshi prices are remarkably well calibrated at trade time: ECE 0.7%, trade-time Brier 0.1685 vs the 0.25 coin-flip baseline.

· Longshot bias is real and asymmetric: takers buying 1-20c contracts average -1.3c EV per contract on the YES side and -1.1c on the NO side — the lottery-ticket buyer funds the market.

· The mirror image: takers of 81-99c favorites average -0.7c (YES) and -0.2c (NO) per contract — being boring pays roughly its keep.

· Longshots still pull volume: 1-20c contracts took 30.5% of taker contract volume in the latest quarter.

The AI Forecasts board publishes our resolvable bets with base rates and 3-pass reasoning; every resolution is Brier-scored in public against the base-rate benchmark.

The weekly Depth report asks who is actually behind each price — concentration, whales-vs-price divergences, flow. The Calibration report scores the market itself against resolutions with Venn-ABERS bands.

Expected value in cents per contract of taking YES or NO at each price bucket, over every resolved trade.

ev by side · 21 rows

price bucket	ev yes	n yes	ev no	n no
-4-0c	not reported	0	18.18	44
1-5c	-0.90	6,244,579	-0.82	2,742,169
6-10c	-1.47	5,132,151	-1.22	1,409,075
11-15c	-1.68	4,757,257	-1.43	1,215,293
16-20c	-1.26	4,732,423	-1.51	1,167,190
21-25c	0.41	4,801,333	-0.73	1,158,627
26-30c	-1.54	5,042,834	-0.89	1,209,866
31-35c	1.62	4,965,403	0.26	1,283,011
36-40c	-2.02	5,313,385	-0.82	1,427,393
41-45c	-2.85	5,079,751	-0.05	1,549,041
46-50c	-2.09	5,987,029	0.12	2,195,379
51-55c	-2.17	5,559,706	0.15	2,382,683
56-60c	-1.87	4,665,405	-0.15	1,996,360
61-65c	-2.19	4,190,738	-0.17	1,812,968
66-70c	-5.00	3,525,456	-0.74	1,776,726
71-75c	-1.74	2,972,744	-0.31	1,776,642
76-80c	-3.01	2,754,783	-0.64	1,853,384
81-85c	-0.54	2,360,581	-0.16	1,940,645
86-90c	-0.68	2,323,104	0.01	2,163,746
91-95c	-0.79	2,206,723	-0.30	2,542,570
96-99c	-0.94	2,086,536	-0.23	3,367,155

Mean absolute deviation between price and realised frequency, by year and by month — whether the crowd is getting better.

calibration mad by year · 6 rows

year	mad cents
2021	0.59
2022	1.92
2023	2.00
2024	4.47
2025	2.18
2026	1.05

calibration mad by month · 51 rows

month	mad cents	n
2021-08	1.45	2,282
2021-10	0.52	3,034
2021-11	0.39	2,012
2021-12	0.06	2,462
2022-01	0.90	5,906
2022-04	2.93	4,280
2022-05	1.99	127,214
2022-06	1.96	224,796
2022-07	2.45	229,908
2022-08	1.12	297,818
2022-09	2.02	249,188
2022-10	1.80	208,634
2022-11	2.46	168,694
2022-12	2.06	124,122
2023-01	2.73	53,088
2023-02	2.88	100,578
2023-03	1.23	351,430
2023-04	1.71	271,242
2023-05	2.52	463,642
2023-06	1.35	421,682
2023-07	2.79	443,192
2023-08	2.22	244,042
2023-09	1.59	207,136
2023-10	1.52	316,192
2023-11	2.01	191,146
2023-12	2.43	218,992
2024-01	3.01	385,032
2024-02	1.63	372,168
2024-03	1.88	353,356
2024-04	1.63	337,132
2024-05	1.31	241,464
2024-06	2.11	232,672
2024-07	1.98	249,528
2024-08	1.61	220,996
2024-09	3.67	217,104
2024-10	12.41	870,024
2024-11	5.73	5,123,450
2024-12	0.92	2,016,926
2025-01	0.94	2,427,836
2025-02	2.35	3,364,986
2025-03	4.12	5,529,812
2025-04	3.44	3,930,924
2025-05	2.45	4,726,954
2025-06	2.94	5,838,492
2025-07	1.85	5,694,832
2025-08	1.59	5,908,696
2025-09	2.58	13,549,064
2025-10	2.70	19,697,290
2025-11	1.12	15,550,418
2025-12	1.95	54,292,896
2026-01	1.05	86,603,532

14 stored builds since 2026-09-06 — every numeric leaf of this panel is written to signal_history at each build, so a repeated value can mean the upstream had not published, not that nothing moved.

brier trade time

2026-09-06 0.17 → 2026-09-19 0.17

ece

2026-09-06 0.01 → 2026-09-19 0.01

log loss

2026-09-06 0.50 → 2026-09-19 0.50

longshot volume share latest

2026-09-06 0.31 → 2026-09-19 0.31

n resolved markets

2026-09-06 3,722,314.00 → 2026-09-19 3,722,314.00

n trades analyzed

2026-09-06 121,671,888.00 → 2026-09-19 121,671,888.00

calibration · 5 rows

price	win rate	n
2.70	0.02	15,527,762
8.00	0.07	11,196,789
13.00	0.12	10,382,666
18.00	0.18	10,281,017
23.00	0.24	10,585,305

ev by side · 6 rows

price bucket	ev yes	n yes	ev no	n no
-4-0c	not reported	0	18.18	44
1-5c	-0.90	6,244,579	-0.82	2,742,169
6-10c	-1.47	5,132,151	-1.22	1,409,075
11-15c	-1.68	4,757,257	-1.43	1,215,293
16-20c	-1.26	4,732,423	-1.51	1,167,190
21-25c	0.41	4,801,333	-0.73	1,158,627

longshot volume share by quarter · 5 rows

quarter	share	contracts
2021-Q2	0.00	5
2021-Q3	0.27	3,700,853
2021-Q4	0.24	6,047,822
2022-Q1	0.29	7,442,620
2022-Q2	0.37	18,979,098

calibration mad by year · 2 rows

year	mad cents
2021	0.59
2022	1.92

calibration mad by month · 13 rows

month	mad cents	n
2021-08	1.45	2,282
2021-10	0.52	3,034
2021-11	0.39	2,012
2021-12	0.06	2,462
2022-01	0.90	5,906
2022-04	2.93	4,280
2022-05	1.99	127,214
2022-06	1.96	224,796
2022-07	2.45	229,908
2022-08	1.12	297,818
2022-09	2.02	249,188
2022-10	1.80	208,634
2022-11	2.46	168,694

scalars

field	value
dataset	TrevorJS/kalshi-trades
n trades analyzed	121,671,888
n resolved markets	3,722,314
brier trade time	0.17
ece	0.01
log loss	0.50

90 rows and 5 fields withheld at this tier: absent from the page, not hidden in it.

Crowd convergence — GEOPOLITICS Das of 2026-09-19 13:11 UTC

ReadHistoryData

yes	market	vol	ends
16%	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	$67.1M	2027-01-01
84%	Iran leader end of 2026? — Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	$39.5M	2026-12-31
18%	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	$11.8M	2027-01-01
16%	US military action against Cuba by...? — US strike on Cuba by December 31?	$7.4M	2027-01-01
85%	Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...? — Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30	$6.1M	2026-10-01

16 stored builds since 2026-09-04 — every numeric leaf of this panel is written to signal_history at each build, so a repeated value can mean the upstream had not published, not that nothing moved.

rows › 0 › score

2026-09-04 0.85 → 2026-09-19 0.84

rows › 1 › score

2026-09-04 0.84 → 2026-09-19 0.83

rows › 10 › score

2026-09-04 0.73 → 2026-09-19 0.71

rows › 11 › score

2026-09-04 0.72 → 2026-09-19 0.70

rows › 2 › score

2026-09-04 0.83 → 2026-09-19 0.82

rows › 3 › score

2026-09-04 0.78 → 2026-09-19 0.82

rows › 4 › score

2026-09-04 0.76 → 2026-09-19 0.79

rows › 5 › score

2026-09-04 0.76 → 2026-09-19 0.79

rows · 5 rows

title	yes	module	volume	end	tag	url	score
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	16	geopolitics	67,062,550	2027-01-01	geopolitics	https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027	0.84
Iran leader end of 2026? — Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of	84	geopolitics	39,494,838	2026-12-31	geopolitics	https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leader-end-of-2026	0.83
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	18	geopolitics	11,834,505	2027-01-01	geopolitics	https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-decem	0.82
US military action against Cuba by...? — US strike on Cuba by December 31?	16	geopolitics	7,411,135	2027-01-01	geopolitics	https://polymarket.com/event/us-strike-on-cuba-by	0.82
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...? — Will no qualifyin	85	geopolitics	6,106,768	2026-10-01	geopolitics	https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-the-next-next-round-of-us-iran-peace-tal	0.79

15 rows and 2 fields withheld at this tier: absent from the page, not hidden in it.

Deeper cuts

Through time — level, distribution, seasonality and range Cas of 2026-09-19 13:06 UTC

ReadHistoryResidual checkData

VIXNasdaq vol (VXN)Baa credit spread

VIX · last 15.44 as of 2026-09-17 · 9,276 observations from 1990-01-02

Five years of VIX with the high-volatility weeks shaded, from the same two-state filter the Regime tab draws. One state, one shading, every tab. · FRED VIXCLS

The last 8 times this looked like today — and what S&P 500 did next

episode	z	level	S&P 500 +5d	S&P 500 +21d
2026-07-31	-0.66	15.99	+3.58%	+2.62%
2026-07-06	-0.74	15.57	-0.29%	+2.64%
2026-06-15	-0.60	16.20	-1.08%	-0.14%
2026-05-25	-0.52	16.59	+1.08%	-2.04%
2026-01-22	-0.58	15.64	+0.81%	-0.06%
2025-12-29	-0.90	14.20	-0.05%	+1.06%
2025-12-03	-0.51	16.08	+0.54%	+0.13%
2025-09-05	-0.52	15.18	+1.59%	+3.99%

z in [-1.0, -0.5) · n=293 episodes · 21-session hit rate 18% · median +5d 0.00, +21d 0.00 · grade C

Episodes when this series last sat in the same trailing-365-observation z bucket, with the forward 5- and 21-session move of S&P 500. 293 episodes at least 21 days apart; the table shows the most recent 8. A conditional distribution with its count, not a signal.

Nasdaq vol (VXN) · last 19.96 as of 2026-09-17 · 6,444 observations from 2001-02-02

Five years of Nasdaq vol (VXN) with the high-volatility weeks shaded, from the same two-state filter the Regime tab draws. One state, one shading, every tab. · FRED VXNCLS

The last 8 times this looked like today — and what Nasdaq 100 did next

episode	z	level	Nasdaq 100 +5d	Nasdaq 100 +21d
2026-08-12	-0.61	20.97	-1.06%	-2.15%
2025-12-29	-0.83	18.39	-0.49%	+1.62%
2025-12-05	-0.50	19.62	-1.93%	-1.13%
2025-09-12	-0.65	18.18	+2.22%	+2.73%
2025-08-22	-0.67	18.06	-0.35%	+5.37%
2025-07-30	-0.83	17.32	-0.13%	+1.53%
2025-07-09	-0.50	18.71	+0.19%	+2.29%
2024-12-24	-0.85	17.03	-3.60%	+0.25%

z in [-1.0, -0.5) · n=182 episodes · 21-session hit rate 66% · median +5d 0.40, +21d 1.73 · grade C

Episodes when this series last sat in the same trailing-365-observation z bucket, with the forward 5- and 21-session move of Nasdaq 100. 182 episodes at least 21 days apart; the table shows the most recent 8. A conditional distribution with its count, not a signal.

Baa credit spread · last 1.44 as of 2026-09-17 · 10,178 observations from 1986-01-02

Five years of Baa credit spread with the high-volatility weeks shaded, from the same two-state filter the Regime tab draws. One state, one shading, every tab. · FRED BAA10Y

The last 8 times this looked like today — and what S&P 500 did next

episode	z	level	S&P 500 +5d	S&P 500 +21d
2024-04-10	-2.14	1.40	-2.68%	+1.04%
2024-02-22	-2.09	1.49	+0.18%	+2.89%
2023-12-06	-2.05	1.63	+3.47%	+3.06%
2023-09-21	-2.31	1.66	-0.70%	-2.44%
2018-02-01	-2.34	1.56	-8.54%	-4.63%
2018-01-11	-2.08	1.69	+1.10%	-5.35%
2017-01-25	-2.03	2.21	-0.82%	+2.85%
2017-01-04	-2.16	2.25	+0.20%	+0.44%

z in [-99.0, -2.0) · n=38 episodes · 21-session hit rate 16% · median +5d 0.00, +21d 0.00 · grade C

Episodes when this series last sat in the same trailing-365-observation z bucket, with the forward 5- and 21-session move of S&P 500. 38 episodes at least 21 days apart; the table shows the most recent 8. A conditional distribution with its count, not a signal.

What changed since last week

leaf	then	now	change	compared with
horizon days	63.00	63.00	unchanged	2026-09-12
n series	33.00	36.00	+3	2026-09-12
n panels	18.00	18.00	unchanged	2026-09-18

1 of 3 headline leaves moved. A repeated value can mean the upstream had not published, not that nothing happened.

ACF of the remainder · 3 rows

series	n	lags outside 95 band	first lag outside	conf95	reading
VIX	260	5	1	0.12	Autocorrelation of the MSTL remainder over 24 lags, with the 95% band at ±0.122,
Nasdaq vol (VXN)	260	4	1	0.12	Autocorrelation of the MSTL remainder over 24 lags, with the 95% band at ±0.122,
Baa credit spread	260	15	1	0.12	Autocorrelation of the MSTL remainder over 24 lags, with the 95% band at ±0.122,

Harvey-Jaeger style structural check: the autocorrelation of the decomposition's remainder against a 95% band. Lags outside the band mean the trend and seasonal have not taken everything systematic out of the series. This is Method content. It is not a forecast and nothing is extrapolated from it.

series · 3 rows

label	series id	unit	kind	last	as of	first obs	n obs	ma 13w	vs 13w
VIX	VIXCLS	pct	level	15.44	2026-09-17	1990-01-02	9,276	15.93	-0.49
Nasdaq vol (VXN)	VXNCLS	pct	level	19.96	2026-09-17	2001-02-02	6,444	24.12	-4.16
Baa credit spread	BAA10Y	pct	level	1.44	2026-09-17	1986-01-02	10,178	1.58	-0.14

scalars

field	value
horizon days	63
n series	36
statsmodels version	0.14.6
statsmodels pinned	0.14.6
statsmodels error	not reported

4 rows and 1 field withheld at this tier: absent from the page, not hidden in it.

Evidence grades. Every figure on this site carries a grade assigned by the validation layer, not by the author: D a descriptive fact computed from the record; C a historical distribution with its sample count; N a hypothesis tested and unable to beat chance under the stated control; T a tested-positive claim under the full protocol — none exists as of this build, which is why no forecast appears. Nulls are published in the null-result registry. MacroBessent is a research publication and is not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Sources and as-of dates are on every chart.

How the figures on this page are constructed is proprietary. For methodology questions, write to e@finkfi.com.