MacroBessent

2026-09-19 13:27 UTCAccount
S&P 5007,650.50+0.17%Nasdaq26,522.54+0.39%Dow51,682.64-0.18%Nikkei 22565,018.95+1.38%Hang Seng24,750.78+0.60%EuroStoxx 506,236.20-1.37%Dollar (DXY)100.22+0.00%EUR/USD1.15+0.18%USD/JPY156.85+0.46%GBP/USD1.34+0.26%USD/CNY6.70-0.15%US 10Y yield5.00+1.03%US 5Y yield4.86+1.15%Gold4,424.90+0.57%Silver66.56+1.66%Copper6.62+0.43%Platinum1,803.50+0.68%Palladium1,306.20+1.24%WTI100.30-1.58%Brent103.87-0.91%Henry Hub2.91+0.38%Gasoline3.53+0.58%Heating oil5.06-1.10%Wheat714.25-1.75%Corn527.50-0.57%Soybeans1,303.50-1.23%Coffee294.55+1.38%Sugar17.36-0.34%Cocoa5,327.00-7.71%Cotton77.38-1.31%Lithium ETF70.50-0.56%Uranium ETF41.65-2.41%Rare Earths ETF69.06-0.06%Copper Miners ETF87.28+0.77%Bitcoin81,244.98+0.42%Ethereum2,637.29+0.99%Solana111.48-0.99%S&P 5007,650.50+0.17%Nasdaq26,522.54+0.39%Dow51,682.64-0.18%Nikkei 22565,018.95+1.38%Hang Seng24,750.78+0.60%EuroStoxx 506,236.20-1.37%Dollar (DXY)100.22+0.00%EUR/USD1.15+0.18%USD/JPY156.85+0.46%GBP/USD1.34+0.26%USD/CNY6.70-0.15%US 10Y yield5.00+1.03%US 5Y yield4.86+1.15%Gold4,424.90+0.57%Silver66.56+1.66%Copper6.62+0.43%Platinum1,803.50+0.68%Palladium1,306.20+1.24%WTI100.30-1.58%Brent103.87-0.91%Henry Hub2.91+0.38%Gasoline3.53+0.58%Heating oil5.06-1.10%Wheat714.25-1.75%Corn527.50-0.57%Soybeans1,303.50-1.23%Coffee294.55+1.38%Sugar17.36-0.34%Cocoa5,327.00-7.71%Cotton77.38-1.31%Lithium ETF70.50-0.56%Uranium ETF41.65-2.41%Rare Earths ETF69.06-0.06%Copper Miners ETF87.28+0.77%Bitcoin81,244.98+0.42%Ethereum2,637.29+0.99%Solana111.48-0.99%

Equities

Two lenses on the same market. Above, what the index is doing — the volatility premium, the regime, where positioning sits. Below, five investor frameworks run as explicit tests against individual companies' own SEC filings, with every criterion, threshold and result shown so the verdict can be argued with rather than believed.

Volatility premium

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Regime

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Positioning

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The index and its options

Regime agreement, with S&P 500 over it

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Options surface — what the listed market is pricing

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Sector rotation and cross-sectional dispersion

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Regime agreement index — four methods, one vote

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Regime duration and debounce — how long spells last, and what stops the label flapping

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Fundamentals across coverage

Fundamental depth — accruals, working capital and where the cash went

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Graham's criteria across the universe, with every base rate

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What drives valuation multiples — SHAP across the coverage universe

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The learned layer — gradient boosting on fundamentals, with Shapley attribution

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Ownership and the sell side

Institutional flow — what large managers filed, and what it does not tell you

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The whole 13F universe — twelve quarters, every filer

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The sell side — and the base rate it has to be read against

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Which house made the call — and what the shuffle says about it

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Ownership cohorts — books shaped alike

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Deeper cuts

Through time — level, distribution, seasonality and range

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The analyst panel

The analyst panel — 149 companies

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The ROIC tree — where the return comes from

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AAPL — the panel

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The panel is computed from SEC XBRL filings and evaluated against fixed thresholds — no language model produces any number on this page, so the same filing gives the same verdict every time. The five frameworks are stylised from published investment writing and are not endorsements by, or opinions of, the people they are named after. Analysis, not advice. Back to the terminal →
Evidence grades. Every figure on this site carries a grade assigned by the validation layer, not by the author: D a descriptive fact computed from the record; C a historical distribution with its sample count; N a hypothesis tested and unable to beat chance under the stated control; T a tested-positive claim under the full protocol — none exists as of this build, which is why no forecast appears. Nulls are published in the null-result registry. MacroBessent is a research publication and is not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Sources and as-of dates are on every chart.
How the figures on this page are constructed is proprietary. For methodology questions, write to e@finkfi.com.