FX Macro Transmission Weekly
The dollar after each quadrant entry with its episode counts, the emerging against developed cross-section, and the policy gap that sits between them.
data as of 2026-09-11 · published 2026-09-18 · next update next Friday
TL;DR — the read in bullets
- Entry into slowdown and disinflation is the widest sample inside the dollar record at n=16 of 33 entries found, and the mean abnormal move in the broad dollar over the following 20 sessions is +0.19 percent with a hit rate of 38 percent. That sits below the 20-episode floor, so the count is the claim and no conditional reading is attached.
- Median growth is +1.10 percent across n=10 developed economies and +3.10 across n=9 emerging ones, a gap of +2.00 points on the IMF projection for 2026.
3 further findings, 2 charts and the rest of the analysis are in the full report.
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MacroBessent Research is market commentary and data analysis. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
MacroBessent is a research publication and is not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
MacroBessent is a research publication and is not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.